Politics

Telangana Elections: Who could be the Kingmaker in case of a hung assembly!

8 months ago
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Telangana Elections Kingmaker

Never in the history of United Andhra Pradesh has it ever happened that it delivered a fractured mandate and after 2014 never it has happened in either of the Telugu states, the case of a hung assembly.

Moreover, after the creation of Telangana in 2014, BRS has always received a clear command by first bagging 63 seats out of the 119 Assembly seats in 2014, which further increased to 88 seats in the 2018 Telangana Assembly elections, cornering around 47.4 percent of the vote share.

Now with around just 48 hours left for the election blitzkrieg, both BRS and Congress are equally confident of a clear mandate in the November 30 Assembly election, with most surveys predicting a neck-to-neck fight between the ruling BRS and the Opposition Congress but speculations are also there of hung assembly this time in Telangana.

How much substance is there in the speculation of getting a ‘fractured mandate’?

If we take a macro perspective at first glance Telangana elections may appear to be a direct contest between the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and Congress. However, if we try to delve deep, the election amphitheater shows many potential electoral gladiators promising to put on a good show.

BJP:

On one hand, BJP is banking on its campaign of nominating a backward caste Chief Minister, at the same time pitching for sub-categorization for Madigas, it is trying to woo the BCs, Dalits, and STs, with its polarisation drive and Modi government’s welfare schemes, BJP is eyeing regions in North Telangana, especially in districts like Nirmal, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Adilabad, and Kamareddi and is expected to make inroads, and dent the prospects of other parties.

Also Read: Telangana Elections: PM Modi’s Temple Run From Tirupati To Telangana

Though the prospects of BJP winning are less, i.e., around 6-7 seats which is not expected to cross single digits but the BJP making an impact in at least 20 to 25 constituencies cannot be ruled out, this reality even BJP knows. Despite this, the high-voltage campaign by BJP seeing top brass of the party including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and BJP President JP Nadda is a strategy to increase its vote share and split the votes wherever possible because ‘if you cannot play to win, then you play to be a spoiler.’

Congress:

The share of Congress votes is definitely going to increase but how big will be the jump in Congress tally, which is to be seen on December 3 once the counting is done and results are announced. The factor that might go in favor of Congress is the anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BRS government, which has been in power for consecutive two terms after Telangana state came into existence in 2014.

The six guarantees of Congress are a plus but the internal strife is taking a toll, where even before coming to power, Congress leaders are gunning for the chair of Chief Minister. Though Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi are using the Indiramma Rajyam sentiment, which has not found much appeal among the masses, the probability of a ‘Resurgent Congress’ is very high however by how much force that resurgence will come can be seen only on the eve of December 3.

In case of a hung assembly, Congress is known to be a loser in recent past, mostly because of BJP. Here, BRS might play big in case, they need some support from Congress MLAs, who might jump ships.

BRS Appeal:

Telangana people are likely to vote for the BRS at KCR’s face value; it doesn’t matter who the MLA candidate is, KCR as Chief Minister is the main appeal. The slogan ‘Etlunde Telangana – Etlaindi Telangana’ (How was Telangana earlier – How is Telangana now) has found a connection with the masses.

However, voter fatigue and anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BRS where masses despair stems from not being able to see their leader quite often now, depicts his losing availability and connection at the ground level which might dent the BRS share of votes.

Moreover, the issue of unemployment has also gripped the ruling government in the present election time ranging from issues of promise of jobs being unfulfilled to irregularities in conducting exams by TSPSC and the paper leaks.

This is also the first election in Telangana without the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and it is yet to be seen, whether the vote share will role in the BRS or Congress camp. Harish Rao, who is known to be a trouble shooter, might as well be ahead of everyone in keeping contact with key leaders from various parties likely to win.

However, many political analysts believe that it will be a clear mandate, whether it is BRS or Congress the majority will be astounding ruling out the possibility of a hung assembly. Now with just some hours left for the polling to begin, the possibility of a hung assembly cannot be negated because as ‘like in cricket anything is possible in elections’, where the 2020 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections were witness to this anecdote, in which the Congress lost ground and the BRS with 51 corporators had to take MIM’s support and BJP secured 48 seats.

Insignificant share of significant Kingmaker:

This year’s ICC Men’s World Cup is an example of how a team that didn’t lose any match, lost its one and only match that was in the finals, the same goes for elections, everything depends on D-day.

Earlier Owaisi said, “BJP’s real objective is to force a hung assembly in Telangana and benefit out of a coalition government in the upcoming parliamentary polls. I appeal to the people to give a decisive mandate, make us win in the 9 seats that we are contesting, and help BRS win 110 seats so that KCR becomes the CM once again.” 

AIMIM is expected to win 6-7 seats, which might help BRS if it falls short of a majority by a few seats, in that case, the possibility of AIMIM being the kingmaker is undoubted.

Other parties like Janasena and BSP have an insignificant chance to make any visible impact though. This time Jansasena is contesting from 8 seats in the Telangana Assembly elections of 2023, and even the possibility of getting 1 seat is too meek, seeming to serve as a ‘joker’ in a pack of cards. However BSP is speculated to win 1 seat under the leadership of R.S. Praveen Kumar, it is now to see on D-day, whether will people give BSP that power to tilt the scales towards the ‘Magic number 60’.

It is pertinent to note that during the 2020 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) polls, while the Congress lost ground and the BRS with 51 corporators had to take MIM’s support and BJP secured 48 seats, BJP is re-plugging the same strategy that it had used in GHMC. The municipal elections could be seen as political engineering at a smaller level to serve as an example in the Assembly elections.

BJP seems to be interested in a hung assembly, sighting Congress’ vociferous campaign and a steady increase in the number of BRS leaders joining the party which has cautioned the BJP to take notice of the Congress targeting a win or vying to be a strong second, making BJP leave no stone unturned in a high octane show of strength from the top brass. So if the masses are to give a fractured mandate on November 30, the permutations for AIMIM emerging as a kingmaker is high in deciding where the reign of power will go for the Telugu state.

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