AnalysisPolitics

Mandal or Kamandal 2.0: Who will win the 2024 election?

mandal vs kamandal

It cannot be denied that the caste system is the greatest hindrance in the way of our progress towards an egalitarian society

Kalelkar Commission Committee

For a long time caste politics have been a gimmick in comparison with BJP’s Hindutva politics even with the Modi-Shah combo, the party was successfully able to improve the image of the Brahmin-Bania party into one which always shows off its Other Backward Class strength. “85 out of 303 BJP Lok Sabha members are from the OBC community which accounts for 29%, 27% of our 1358 MLAs across the country. 40% of the 163 legislative council members are from the OBC community. We have more OBC MPs than the Congress party,” Nadda said in the Rajya Sabha during the discussion on the women’s reservation bill. “The leadership in the house supports the empowerment of labourers, and Sabka Saath Sabka Vishwas is the basic mantra of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ji. The representation that the Modi government has given to the backward class has never been given by the Congress,’’ Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan posted on X.The above statements were given by the politicians just after Union Home Minister Amit Shah mentioned the number of OBC ministries in the Union Cabinet, by placing focus on ministers who run the government. Later,Modi  attacked the opposition by saying they were “trying to divide Hindus on the basis of caste lines.

N.S. Madhavan on X said, “Release of BiharCasteCensus is a game changer for the 2024 election. Will Modi be forced to make a counterargument with the Justice Rohini Commission report?”

The  two options which the BJP seems to have for winning 2024 elections are the implementation of the recommendations to the Rohini Commission, which was made to suggest the quota within the OBC reservation, and then by giving more priority to the Hindu, they decided to inaugurate the Ram Temple to obscure the caste lines. Moreover,the inauguration of the Ram temple is scheduled for next year in January and the Rohini Commission is yet to be made public. From Hindutva Politics and Labharthi plank, it has been observed that the BJP overcame all its challenges related to the 2019 elections.

Now, it will be interesting to observe what the BJP will do in order to change the game by playing safely to counter the new caste census challenge from the opposition- whether they will combine the effect of Ram with Rohini or choose the option to analyse the reservation percentage. If we look into the past and see what happened in the Karnataka election, even after seats were increased by the BJP government for SCs to 2% and for STs to 4%, the BJP still lost. So, from the last election, we can predict the future that caste census can or cannot be a game changer because it also depends upon which issues the voters of the particular states are concerned about.

Roshan Kishore, Data and Political Editor at Hindustan Times wrote on X, “Is migration a bigger cycle of equality than Mandal?

So, if we talk in terms of development then we can observe that The latest PLFS data for 2021-2022 shows the average social group income in Tamil Nadu is higher than the average upper-caste income in UP-Bihar. It is not at all surprising. It’s because of the overall development in these states. Caste is not directly proportional to income.

If there is an increase in income that does not necessarily imply a decrease in caste violence.Bihar has seen the collective rule of both over the past few decades. The point of concern here is that both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad have failed to ensure the equal representation of the marginalised sections in positions of power and authority.As per a report by ET, on October 3, Congress leader Abhisek Manu Singhvi brought a cyclone in the party when he tweeted in what seemed to be a link to Rahul Gandhi’s slogan “jitni abadi utna haq” [rights of the people should be according to their population strength]. When his comment went viral, Singhavi deleted the tweet at the party’s request.Equality of Opportunity is never the same as equality of outcomes. People endorsing #jitni abadi utna haq have to first completely understand the consequences of it. It will eventually culminate into the majority,” Singhavi posted on X.

Later the All India Congress Committee [AICC] clarified that whatever he said is his personal view, not the view of the party. Jairam Ramesh on X said, “Dr. Singhavi’s tweet may be a reflection of his own personal view but in no way does it reflect the position of the Indian National Congress- the essence of which is contained both in the Raipur declaration on February 26, 2023, and in the CWC [congress working committee] resolution of September 16, 2023. ”Kamal Nath wrote on X, ”The Congress party is committed to the caste census. As soon as the Congress party Government is formed in Madhya Pradesh, a caste census will be conducted and every section of the society will be given a fair share in both governance and administration. The Congress Party has always stood for social justice. The decision to give 27% reservation to OBCs in Madhya Pradesh was also taken by the Congress government, which was conspiratorially abolished by the BJP. Congress will come and will bring justice.”

On Monday the former Senior Congress Leader of Madhya Pradesh Digvijay Singh said that the caste-based census will be done if Congress is voted to power in the state in the forthcoming elections. According to ANI, reacting to the caste-based census report released by the Bihar government, Mr. Singh said, ”I have always supported this. If we come to power here, we will also get a caste-based census done in Madhya Pradesh.” Moreover, he added, “We follow Sanatan Dharma, there is no hatred in Sanatan Dharma which BJP spreads.”While holding the rally in Jagdalpur, Chattisgarh, Modi defined that the BJP is working for the poor’s right to development and access to resources in the country and is committed to their welfare.

Does Congress want to decrease the share of minorities? If quantitative strength is to determine who will have the right, does Congress want to deprive minorities (of the right to resources)?”Moreover, in a rally, Modi said, “Will Hindus having the biggest majority come forward and take all the rights? I have been saying for some time and repeat now that Congress is not being run by Congress leaders. Its senior leaders are keeping quiet. Congress has been outsourced. It is being run from behind the scenes by those who are hand in glove with the anti-nationals. Congress wants to divide and destroy the country. Congress wants to divide Hindus.”

So, now with this Mandal versus Kamandal politics it will be interesting to look on what basis the BJP government will gain the vote and in the upcoming days to face this new caste challenge from the opposition – what steps they will take- it will tie Ram with Rohini or explore the options of the seeing the percentage of the reservation percentage.

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