Analysis

Where will Rahul Gandhi contest in the Lok Sabha 2024 Elections from South India?

5 months ago
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Safe seat for Rahul Gandhi

The 2019 Parliamentary election was a disaster for India’s grand old party, the Indian National Congress (INC). After five years, the BJP now has 12 States, and Congress rules only 3, namely Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. The recent thumping victory of BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh set the momentum for the upcoming 2024 parliamentary elections. 

The BJP claims it won the elections due to its finest political strategy and endorsement of the government’s ”good governance and transparency.”

The pertinent question is how will Congress encounter the mighty BJP, which rides on the Modi wave and social engineering. Moreover, the question of how Rahul Gandhi strategizes the electoral landscape and navigates the Congress party for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is an imperative discussion in politics. 

Rediscovering Rahul Gandhi in Electoral Politics

Recently, when the Supreme Court of India held the conviction of Rahul Gandhi for the remark, ”Why are all these thieves named Modi?” Later, the substantial question in the public forum was about where Rahul Gandhi would contest the parliamentary elections. 

A four-time Member of Parliament (MP) since 2014, he is the face of the Indian National Congress party. A closer analysis of the recently ended assembly elections in the Hindi heartland by CSDS-Lokniti Post Poll survey reveals that the congress vote share is waning across the social bases. The study exposed that the BJP encroached on the traditional vote base of Congress in North India. Hence, the battle of 2024 is challenging for Rahul Gandhi; he has to strengthen the grassroots level in the North and solidify his presence in South India. 

Gandhi Scion Losing Grip in Hindi Belt

Presently, the BJP is strong in the Hindi heartland, where Congress can’t spring any surprise within a few months. BJP hails that the four castes are crucial for the party. The four castes are “”nari shakti (women empowerment), yuva shakti (youth empowerment), kisaan (farmers) and gareeb parivaar (poor families)”” In 2019, Congress won just only one seat from Uttar Pradesh exposes how the party is disconnected from the masses and grassroots. 

The Congress did not hope for any miracle, but they believed the INDIA alliance would change the fortunes. Rahul Gandhi won Lok Sabha elections thrice from Amethi in 2004, 2009 and 2014 elections. If you see the number of votes and vote share of Rahul Gandhi, it was drastically reduced in Amethi from 66 to 43 per cent. In 2019, BJP’s Smriti Irani breached the fortress of Congress in Amethi with a spectacular victory. After that, there was always uncertainty in Rahul Gandhi’s strategic choice of selecting a parliamentary constituency. 

Through the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Rahul Gandhi has gained some momentum in recent years and he is again starting another Yatra from East to West corners of India. Hopefully, this yatra will turn the tables in favor of the Senior Congress Leader.

Way to Wayanad Again!

When Rahul faced a debacle in Amethi, he achieved a remarkable victory in Kerala’s Wayanad constituency in Kerala’s 2019 Parliamentary elections by securing a record-breaking margin of 431,770 votes. Presently, there are hints that he might contest from Wayanad again, considering it is a safe seat and he can recreate victory. At Calicut, Rahul recently reiterated, “I consider it like returning to my family and meeting my friends. The more I come to Kerala and Wayanad, the more I feel it is my home.” However, political analysts propagate that If he contests in north India, it will make an impact in South India, also since it would enhance the idea that the party alone can take on BJP in the Hindi belt.

Moreover, it will proliferate the confidence and morale of the party cadres. AICC general secretary in charge of Kerala Tariq Anwar on Tuesday. “There is no reason why Rahul should not contest again from Wayanad.”” Nevertheless, the CPIM leadership in Kerala is not entertaining Rahul in Wayanad, as they aim for the seat to increase their seat share. Apart from all the speculations and arguments, there is a high possibility of Rahul considering Wayanad as his safe haven. 

Also Read: ‘Can’t differentiate between AM and PM’, Daughter reveals Pranab Mukherjee’s view on Rahul Gandhi

Contest from Cape Comorin

A couple of years back, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee (TNCC) President KS Alagiri requested AICC president Rahul Gandhi to contest from one of the Lok Sabha constituencies from Tamil Nadu other than Amethi. The Nehru family never contested from Tamil Nadu, but there were only a few pockets where they could fetch votes. 

In the southernmost part of Tamil Nadu, the Kanyakumari constituency is one of the stronghold bastions of Congress. It is the constituency where the Congress face the BJP in Tamil Nadu, other than the Sivagangai constituency. Many Christian Nadar (OBC community) and Catholic Fishermen communities are arithmetically strong here. Kanya Kumari is Tamil Nadu’s 100 per cent literate district and politically conscious community. 

Rahul Gandhi embarked his Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanyakumari, and even the last Congress CM of Tamil Nadu, K. Kamaraj, also once contested from here. Kanyakumari is deemed as one of the safest constituencies for Congress in Tamil Nadu, and as they are already in alliance with DMK, it is a cakewalk for Rahul Gandhi to win from the Cape Comorin. 

Karnataka Connection of Congress 

The Gandhi family has a long historical association with Karnataka when it comes to parliamentary elections. In 1978, former Congress leader Indira Gandhi Gandhi had won from Chikmagalur after she lost in Rai Bareli in Uttar Pradesh. In 1999, Sonia Gandhi bagged the Bellary seat, albeit she retained Amethi also. There are speculations that Rahul Gandhi can choose one from the Chikmagalur-Udupi Constituency or the Mysore-Kodagu Constituency. However, these constituencies are not safe and risky as per the evolving voting pattern and ground-level reports. The Bengaluru Rural constituency (formerly Kanakapura) is a safe option for Rahul Gandhi in Karnataka. Since last two decades, the Bengaluru Rural constituency has become a stronghold for Congress. Karnataka Deputy CM DK Shivakumar’s brother, DK Suresh, represents the constituency. In 2019, before the Wayanad constituency, the discussion within Congress chose Bengaluru Rural, but at the last minute, he moved to Kerala. 

The Congress is a party which encourages internal democracy and deliberations outside the party within boundaries. The existing practice in Congress is that decisions always come from the high command, particularly Sonia Gandhi. 

Rahul Gandhi must comprehend that for effective political engagement, it is necessary to have foresight and readiness beyond 2024 and the electoral sphere. This entails having a well-defined agenda and a clear vision for promoting genuine equality, socio-economic justice, and unity rather than a watered-down interpretation of Hindutva.

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