Opinion

Congress loses big time to BJP in the semi-finals for the 2024 General Elections

7 months ago
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State BJP growth

Rahul Gandhi in one of press meets, wrongly said Government in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is going out and the corrected himself after realizing the fact that, its congress Government in those states. As he laughed away from the press meet, netizens shared the video widely and had a fun day during this election season.

After the World Cup loss for the Indian Team, Rahul Gandhi took a jibe at the Prime Minister for being a ‘panauti’ and causing the bad luck for the team. Now that the final results are out, It seems Congress has been completely rejected from the Indian Heartland politics. While the BJP successfully retained its Government with humongous mandate in Madhya Pradesh with 164/230 seats in the state, the saffron party also managed to win Congress strongholds in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The Decisive Victory of BJP over Congress

In the states where Congress was up against BJP directly, it lost with a clear mandate. Post Karnataka elections, Congress hopes were high as they took upon the 5 state semi-final elections to the run for 2024. It seems that BJP has got its game right in Hindi heartlands. In Telangana however, BJP was not in the fray for power. Congress was up against BRS, led by KCR. Congress got support from Telugu Desam Party and fought the elections valiantly. Congress won the elections with a very slight margin of just 1% in the vote share but here BJP also marked its territory quite well. BJP’s Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy defeated Congress CM candidate Revanth Reddy and incumbent Chief minister KCR on Kamareddy seat, with decisive 6,741 votes.

BJP also didn’t lose any vote share they had in 2018. BJP won 6.98% vote share in 2018 Telangana Elections and secured 13.77% in 2023. Though the alliance partner Janasena lost deposits in 7 out of 8 seats they fought in, BJP still got some good news in Telangana. Some important leaders like Bandi Sanjay and Eatela Rajender lost their seats but it is evident that, BJP has not lost everything. The prime Minister tweeted and thanked the people of Telangana for their continued support for the party.

Despite its bluster, the Congress has good cause to hold itself accountable for the disastrous election in the Hindi heartland. The party’s attempt at religious outreach in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh failed badly. Voters showed no interest in or attraction to Kamal Nath’s portrayal of a Sanatan Dharmi or a devoted Hanuman bhakt. They exhibited a similar mindset in response to initiatives spearheaded by Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, such as the Ram Gaman Path and schemes to buy cow dung. Kamal Nath, Ashok Gehlot, Revanth Reddy, and Bhupesh Baghel were given free hand by the Congress central leadership in terms of oversight and responsibility. There was no sign of the party’s internal election management system.

BJP’s victory in Chhattisgarh also shows BJP’s acceptance in tribal belt as well. As oppose to the popular belief that BJP only does better in urban belts. BJP has shown its might in a state that have a substantial tribal population.

Rahul Gandhi continued to bring up the caste-based census and reservations at every election gathering. It’s remarkable that the caste quota was not elevated to a major election issue by the state leadership of the Congress in the three states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. The higher caste was negatively impacted by the plank. Similar to this, Priyanka Gandhi’s decision to criticize Jyotiraditya Scindia energised his cadre and followers, who were purportedly dissatisfied with the BJP’s allocation of tickets. To lessen the impact of Priyanka’s remark, Scindia personally put in a great deal of effort to ensure the victory of BJP nominees.

Telangana Slight Victory for Congress

Revanth Reddy has been working on the ground in Telangana for a long time and has been personally invested in this election. While the BRS was sitting over-confident in their Hyderabad bubble, Revanth Reddy reached out to the strongholds of the Congress and ensured a slight margin of seats. However the difference in vote share is not big. Its just 1% and many seats are won with slight margins. In Telangana It was Telugu Desam Party, who decided not to contest and support Congress unconditionally, for which the anti-BRS, anti-BJP votes did not split much and congress got the maximum help they could.

The State was also seeing a huge anti-incumbency wave. There were scam allegations against BRS, Unemployment and paperleak issues, Old candidates with dented past by BRS, Hyderabad focus and the family led politics, contributed to Congress victory. KCR’s national ambition also costed him the state.

Whats next for BJP in South India?

BJP has a huge task to set their house right before the 2024 elections. Hindi heartland seems to be something that BJP has figured out. Its the south that needs to be addressed. The Lotus army must reach out to the local parties for meaningful partnerships and get away from baggage of parties like Janasena. Like in Tamilnadu, BJP got away from the alliance with AIADMK and now they have a saffron surge in the state with leaders like K Annamalai.

At the same time, BJP needs to work on strengthening their state leadership in the south. Finding new faces and identifying the real workers is very necessary.

INDIA Alliance and Congress

INDIA alliance partners like TMC has already asked for a leadership change in the alliance. Many others will also follow the suit after seeing the results of the 5 states. A weak congress, will only result in a weak opposition. Congress might drag the alliance with their own weight. They need to have a referendum before working on a combined battle plan for 2024.

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